What Will 'Alice' Do?

Tim Burton's Alice In Wonderland opens this weekend, and will undoubtedly have a ripple effect on the box office. While the film has only received middling reviews so far (average 55% Tomatometer rating, 61% from the top critics and a 53 from Metacritic), it's riding a huge wave of hype and is the first big 3-D picture since Avatar came out in December.

As a result, expect to see the top film from the past few weeks, Shutter Island, drop to second place, and we'll likely see the biggest drop week-over-week that we've seen from Avatar as Alice In Wonderland takes its 3-D and IMAX screens, and audiences switch to the newer film.

Kevin Smith's Cop Out will suffer a massive week-over-week drop, while The Crazies will also suffer a significant drop, but may hold over fairly well for the genre based on good word of mouth. Look for Percy Jackson & The Olympians to also be decimated by Alice In Wonderland, due to family audiences switching to the newer spectacle.

Another interesting data point is the The Academy Awards are happening this weekend, and award shows have had very strong ratings over the past few months. Given that the Oscars are the biggest of the movie-based award shows, the cross-over impact of people staying home on Sunday could negatively impact box office grosses. Except for Alice, of course. I estimate Alice In Wonderland will gross somewhere in the neighbourhood of $90 million, if not more.